IEEE Winnipeg Section


Seminar: Mathematical Assessment of the Role of Climate Change on Spread of Vector-borne Diseases


Abba Gumel, PhD, FAS, FAAS, FCBCS (ASU-Santa Fe Inst.)
Professor of Mathematics
and C. Castillo-Chavez Professor of Mathematical Biology
School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences
Arizona State University
P.O. Box 871804
Tempe, Arizona, 85287-1804, USA.

DATE:       September 15, 2015 (Tuesday)
TIME:       11:0012:00 AM
PLACE:      E3-262 (Senate Chamber), EITC, Fort Garry Campus


  • Department of Electrical & Computer Engineering
  • IEEE Computer & Computational Intelligence Chapter


Climatic factors, such as temperature, rainfall, vapour pressure and humidity, are known to influence the incidence of vector-borne diseases (VBDs) such as such as malaria, dengue fever, yellow fever, West Nile fever, Lyme disease and leishmaniasis.  These factors affect the incidence of VBDs typically through changes in the duration of vector and parasite life cycles or by influencing host, vector, or parasite behaviour.  As global temperature continues to rise, a key ecological question is whether or not a shift in the distribution of vectors into non-endemic areas may occur (so that endemic areas at lower temperatures may experience an increase in incidence, while regions with temperatures beyond a certain threshold are likely to experience a decline in incidence). In other words, will climate change alter distribution of disease vectors?  This talk addresses some of the main concepts and challenges associated with the mathematical modeling of the role of climate change on the transmission dynamics of VBDs, with emphasis on malaria. Models, of the form of deterministic systems of nonlinear differential equations, will be used to illustrate the main concepts.

Dr. Gumel is a Professor of Mathematics (and the C. Castillo-Chavez Professor of Mathematical Biology) at the School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, Arizona State University (ASU).  Prior to joining ASU in 2014, Dr. Gumel was a Professor of Mathematics at the University of Manitoba (1999-2014).  Dr. Gumel’s research work centres on using mathematical approaches to provide qualitative and quantitative insight into real-life phenomena associated with the mathematical modeling of systems arising in the natural, social and engineering sciences, with emphasis on the ecology, epidemiology and population biology of emerging and re-emerging diseases of public health importance. Dr Gumel has authored/co-authored about 120 research publications and edited/co-edited three books.  Dr. Gumel served as Secretary of the Canadian Applied and Industrial Mathematical Society (2007-2009; 2009-2011). He is Fellow of African Academy of Science and the newly-formed ASU-Santa Fe Institute Center for Biosocial Complex Systems. Dr. Gumel is Adjunct Professor at the University of Department of Mathematics, University of Manitoba (2014-2017) and an Extraordinary Professor at the Department of  Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, University of Pretoria, South Africa (2015-2017).